Wrong impression or Great Depression?
The economy is sluggish, and people are taking lumps. Markets are adjusting.
But look at the following:
For the entire year, retail sales were down 0.1 percent, a sharp turnaround after a 4.1 percent gain in 2007. It was the first time the annual retail sales figure has fallen on government records going back to 1992. Before 2008, the weakest year for retail sales had been an increase of 2.4 percent in 2002, the year after the 2001 recession.
Later on in the article, the author says retail sales (excluding automobiles) dropped 3.1 percent. Let’s assume it’s 3.1 percent.
Are we on the brink of unprecedented economic collapse because retail shrank by 3.1 percent? Notice it’s not 31 percent. Or 13 percent for that matter. Three-point-one percent. If this number is true, what the hell is everybody screaming about? SO retail spending shrank a (relative) little. We need a retail czar!
Since consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of total economic activity, the retail weakness is a major factor depressing overall economic activity.
Except when there are other phantoms to curse.
Many analysts believe the overall economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, plunged at an annual rate of 6 percent in the just-completed fourth quarter after dropping by 0.5 percent in the third quarter.
This remains to be seen, of course–we’ll get a first glance in two weeks. A 6 percent drop in GDP would truly be a pant-shitter, but let’s just hold our collective sphincters–and additional trillion-dollar bailouts — until the numbers come out.
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