Who’s following who–Dow or Gallup?

Here’s a  mashup of the Gallup Daily Tracking poll to the Dow’s recent plunge.

Most of September was in pre-Bailout (comparative) bliss.  McCain and Obama traded leads in the daily tracking poll, and the market stayed mostly in the 11,000 range.  In fact, McCain actually tied Obama on Thursday, Sept 25th.

Sept 26th - Dow closes at 11,143.  Obama leads McCain by 3%.

Then “Black Monday,” Sept 29th, the first day of trading after the first Presidential debate and a day of limbo during intense negotiations on the Hill.  The Dow sells off big time and closes at 10,365. Obama is up 8% all of a sudden.

Sept 30th - Dow closes up to 10,850.  Obama leads McCain by 6%.

Oct 1st - Dow closes down to 10,831.  Obama leads McCain by 4%.

Oct 2nd - Dow closes down to 10,482.  Obama leads McCain by 5%.

Oct 3rd - Dow closes down to 10,325.  Obama leads McCain by 7%.

Oct 6th - Dow closes down to 9,955.  Obama leads McCain by 8%.

Oct 7th - Dow closes down to 9,447.  Obama leads McCain by 9%.

Oct 8th - Dow closes down to 9,258.  Obama leads McCain by 11%.

Oct 9th - Dow closes down to 8,579.  Obama leads McCain by 11%.

Although some won’t go this far, I will–I do think the markets fear the kind of “change” Obama promises to bring.  Of course this is wild speculation but I’m just a kid trying to make sense of a crazy world.