A Persian Wag the Dog
July 16, 2006
The multi-front Israeli-Arab war is still raging ferociously. But it is a controlled burn designed to let the hands of the Iranians and their proxies be forced into an uncompromising situation.
Iran, with Western forces on either border and extreme international pressure in the nuclear dialogue, is already acting out incoherently, delivering unrecognizeable diplomatic body language and bizarre proclamations. Additional pressure would have them release some genuine military anger, most likely within the tried and true Israel-Lebanon border zone. The kind of reaction now provoked serves America’s interests by exposing the true nature of how an Iranian/Syrian/Hezbollah axis presents itself operationally on the battlefield. We’ve just now got a decent look at some of the missile technology in the Hezbollah inventory, and have found that it can inflict intense casualties
Israel, pulled back from some of its most controversial occupation zones in what appeared to be a questionable final act from a venerated leader, now is poised to make Ariel Sharon’s controversial ruse into a qualified strategic success for Israeli nation, provided that the IDF can reduce the influence of Hezbollah and Hamas the former buffer zones. Since there is no sign that the IDF will fail in this endeavor, Israel will be able to deliver serious damage on Hezbollah assets and not have the United States pulling the choke chain.
The sides in this war have long been yearning to meet on the battlefield, without conditions. Aside from having the advantage of playing the victim, Israel will benefit the most from this conflict since the ongoing actions can only demystify the operations of the Hezbollah shadow army and the not-so-invisible link to Damascus and Tehran. Iran is seen as throwing up distractions from its IAEA problems (a little Persian “Wag the Dog”?) But, now more apparent than ever, it will prove that the car bombings and the general mayhem was not about the Wall and the Jewish settlers and the border territories seized long ago for self-protection. Syria, Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas detest the presence of the Israeli state and will use any pretext to launch punitive actions.
Sharon must be smiling.
[...] A heavy demographic midsection, a lack of thought leadership, and an questionable economy keep Iranian leaders up a night. This is without considering that thousands of Western troops are garrisoned in close proximity. As I have written before, erratic Iranian diplomacy is the result not of some perceived weakness of the West, but of desperation within the Revolutionary leadership. [...]
[...] Like Afghanistan before it, we had plenty of justifiable reasons to project our power to Iraq. As the world—still to this day—is wringing their hands worrying about the “unwinnable” war in Iraq, the US has been able to realize the ultimate intent of our multitheater strategy–the confrontation of Iranian (and Russian) regional power that has taunted us for almost 30 years. [...]